| Further, I believe that the onset of
satellite and internet radio will fuel competition with public radio stations
in the areas of strength that they’ve developed over the years, relatively
unopposed, I might add, by commercial forces, those being serious news
and serious music.
Radio hasn’t had to contend with the
equivalent of cable television. I gave a talk that had some parallels to
the one I’m giving this morning a few weeks ago to the presidents of the
top 100 public television stations, and I was on the podium with the guy
who is the head of interactive services at Microsoft who, if you think
I have a radical view, was much further out, and with Michael Jackson (not
the performer, but the head of Channel 4 television in London); and in
delivering this message to a couple of the television folks, I think they
felt they were in much deeper shit, if you’ll pardon the word, than I honestly
believe radio is in. I think our prospects are much better. But I’m still
going to give it to you straight: I think we’re in deep trouble, because
we haven’t had the sort of threats from commercial radio, which migrated
all its talent to television many, many years ago and then went to formatted
approaches, by in large, which have not been, in most cases, directly competitive
with what we’ve done in the music and cultural areas; and serious news
virtually disappeared from the commercial airwaves.
We’ve had an oasis which we’ve been able
to occupy and develop and in which a lot of intelligent, curious, well-heeled
people have come to drink amidst the desert, if that metaphor isn’t too
contorted. As a result, I think many of us who work in radio believe that
our medium is different and immune from competitive threat; that we’ll
continue to grow audience and revenue into the indefinite future; that
our greatest problem is too few broadcast signals,; and, in some cases,
the greatest call on our resources should be to buy additional broadcast
stations. I believe we’re about to have our bubble burst.
One indicator of the kind of competition
that’s coming is the channel lineup for Sirius Radio set to launch fifty
music channels next October on one of two radio direct satellite services
licensed by the FCC. When you look at this lineup, there will be three
classical channels, 24 by 7. At least the initial plan is that one will
focus on symphonic works, one on chamber, one on opera--some of you may
be able to get your opera broadcasts off the air, if you’ve been trying
to do that for years; or you may say, “that’s not what I’ve been trying
to do;” but in any case, people are going to have access to twenty-four
hours of opera, if they subscribe to the serious lineup. Five jazz channels,
contemporary, big band, classic, NAC and Latin; seven rock, including triple
A; two alternative; two classic rock; one all-album rock; eight distinct
Latin channels; plus new age, world beat, blues, reggae, Broadway, etc.
Now, you may say, “gee, been there, seen
that, cable radio--it was a flop, nobody cared, so what’s the big deal?”
These are going to be hosted channels, not
the elevator-music approach that DMX and some of the others took in the
cable world, and they’re being programmed by people with strong radio backgrounds.
I visited a few weeks ago the studios that have been built for serious
radio in Rockefeller Center, and it’s enough to make you weep, if you’ve
spent your time at a radio station over the years. These people are heavily
bankrolled, and they are developing an extraordinary infrastructure, not
just technical, but beginning to now hire people, and they’re going after
the best they can find in each of the areas that they are programming.
In some cases their partners will be our best producers, including those
who make programs for NPR, and yes, for PRI too.
Second, I believe that these threats
are materializing more rapidly than most of us thought possible even a
year or two ago; and within three to five years, as content companies link
with satellite internet companies to define new markets and services, we
will see a noticeable erosion of broadcast audiences and it is likely we
will see a corresponding loss in revenue.
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38 Speakers
Created
3/29/2000
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2000 Association of Music Personnel in Public Radio |
