Association of Music Personnel in Public Radio 
Summer 1999 

       As the millennium begins to wind down, perhaps the most fundamental question broadcasters face is how future audiences use their services. Will the passive, real-time channels of today still rule, or will interactive services such as on-demand streaming and downloads dominate? The answer depends on the hardware consumers will have access to and how they will prefer to use that hardware. 
 

       From today’s perspective, it seems that the possibilities for tomorrow’s audio receivers fall into two categories: the radio appliance and the computer-based platform. But, over time, each of these devices will differ from its current configuration. Radio receivers will likely incorporate the expanded capability of displaying auxiliary data via graphical screens. Some will include new band(s) for DBS radio reception. Meanwhile, computer-based systems will evolve into dedicated, portable browser devices with wired and/or wireless online access. In other words, the two classes of device will begin to appear more like each other. 

       It’s a logical extension to assume that these devices will also integrate each other’s features. This means that tomorrow’s radio receiver will be a combination broadcast tuner and web media-browser/player, offering access to local broadcast channels, new DBS services, new broadcast data services and wired/wireless online interactive media. Think of this future integrated receiver as a palmtop with a radio, or a boombox with a browser. 

      When this integration happens, the distinction between platform and appliance, or computer and radio, will be erased. Listeners won’t really care about the melding of these technologies; they will use the new devices to effortlessly change between media types at will, just as they move between AM and FM bands on the same radio today. (Remember, AM and FM signals were originally received on separate, and very different, devices.) 
A universal process 

       Other technologies are already undergoing this kind of evolution or convergence. “Smart” home appliances are emerging at a rapid pace, with devices like dishwashers incorporating several multiprocessors. Most of today’s automobiles also incorporate microprocessor-based technology. The next generation of televisions and set-top boxes will include more computer-processing power than many of today’s desktop PCs. 

      While the user interface generally defines how we identify a device, the reality is that computers are simply taking on other forms and dedicated applications—instead of the general-purpose model used for desktop computers today. (Certainly, desktop systems will continue to exist, but these too will migrate toward their specific applications—as workstations used primarily for the administrative and creative processes the worker at the desk requires.) 

       Everyone wins in this scenario: The reliability of the appliance model will be merged with the flexibility and cost-effectiveness of the computer model. Complex appliances will be produced more cheaply and computer platforms will become more robust. In the end, the line between these product types will largely disappear. Again, like AM and FM, old media (broadcast) and new media (online) will be housed in a single box. The distinctions that we see as so profound today will practically evaporate in this integrated environment. 

       In their role as content providers for these new media receivers, broadcasters will have a major transition of their own to manage. The first change will involve the transmission of greater amounts of auxiliary data, some of which will be associated with audio programming. 

       The other area broadcasters will enter is the world of on-demand programming. While on-air channels will continue to be locked to a real-time clock, the broadcaster of the new millennium will also offer a menu of programs that listeners can sample or assemble whenever and however they desire. 

       Just as future receivers will blur the boundary between appliances and platforms, future broadcasters will provide a package of real-time and on-demand programming-plus-data as a diverse yet coherently branded multimedia offering. Tomorrow’s audiences will expect nothing less.